Arctic Warming Unalarming

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

An recent extensive analysis of Northern surface temperature records gives no support for Arctic “amplification” fears.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. Heretofore, it has been supposed that any global warming would be amplified in the Arctic. This may still be true if urban heat island effects are responsible for part of the observed temperature increase at European stations. However, European and Arctic temperatures have remained closely synchronized for over 200 years during the rapid growth of urban centres.

And the warming pattern in Europe and the Arctic is familiar and unalarming.

Arctic temperatures have increased during the period 1820– 2014. The warming has been larger in January than in July. Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada appear to have warmed slightly more than Eastern Canada, Greenland, Iceland and Northern Europe. The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000. The July temperature trend is even slightly negative for the period 1820–1990. The time series exhibit multidecadal temperature fluctuations which have also been found by other temperature reconstructions.

The paper is:

Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present W. A. van Wijngaarden, Theoretical & Applied Climatology (2015) here

Temperatures were examined at 118 stations located in the Arctic and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s.

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Summary

The data and results for all stations are provided in detail, and the findings are inescapable.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. . . The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. . .During the 1900s, all four (Arctic) regions experienced increasing temperatures until about 1940. Temperatures then decreased by about 1 °C over the next 50 years until rising in the 1990s.

For the period 1820–2014, the trends for the January, July and annual temperatures are 1.0, 0.0 and 0.7 °C per century, respectively. . . Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000.

Once again conclusions based on observations are ignored while projections from models are broadcast and circulated like gossip. The only amplification going on is the promotion of global warming alarms.

megaphone

Footnote: I did a study last year of 25 World Class surface temperature records (all European) and found the same patterns (here).

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8 comments

  1. craigm350 · May 6

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

    Like

  2. Climatism · May 7

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    “The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. . . The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. . .During the 1900s, all four (Arctic) regions experienced increasing temperatures until about 1940…”

    Like

  3. Hifast · May 8

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

    Like

  4. manicbeancounter · May 8

    Ron
    I think you have the wrong link to the W. A. van Wijngaarden paper.
    The direct link is http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-014-1311-z
    Dr van Wijngaarden’s publications can be found at http://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/publications/

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · May 8

      Thanks, manic, for that alert. The link in the post works for me; I found it at the yorku page you link to above. It seems that in some cases it can flip over to the springer page.

      Like

  5. manicbeancounter · May 8

    The paper is worth a read.
    One clear point to be made is that January warming has been greater than July warming. If replicated in Northern Europe it means that the Little Ice Age was more severe than indicated by average annual temperatures.

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · May 8

      Good point. The mean would then be covering more extreme cold minimums. My study of 25 european stations showed October through April warmed at 3 times the rate of the other months. Also, it showed LIA persisted after 1850, almost until 1900.

      Like

  6. Canadian Climate Guy · May 12

    Reblogged this on Canadian Climate Guy.

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