We often hear reports that something is occurring around the world, and then someone responds: “That’s not happening where I live.” And the rebuttal is, “Your neighborhood is not typical of the rest of the world.” In other words, the claim is: this trend is going on everywhere elsewhere despite your not observing it.
For a month now we have been reading in the media about how July was the hottest month in recorded history.
“July was Earth’s hottest month on record, NOAA says” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34009289
And at the same time, we read reports about how cool the summer was in Canada, in the US, in the UK, in parts of Europe and how cold was the winter in Australia.
“What a washout! A British summer to forget. In the UK July was colder than average, and we had 140% of average rainfall.” http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/16/washout-british-summer-witness-holiday-experts
“The July contiguous U.S. average temperature was 73.9°F, 0.2°F above the 20th century average and ranked near the middle in the 121-year period of record.” http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201507
“Wetter than normal summer for most of Canada except B.C.” http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/08/wetter-than-normal-summer-canada-except-bc/
“A large swath stretching from eastern Scandinavia into western Siberia was cooler than average, with part of western Russia much cooler than average. Cooler than average temperatures were also observed across parts of eastern and southern Asia and scattered areas in central and northern North America.” (Source: NOAA)
So the question arises: Is there global warming unseen in most observations? How would we know what was observed in July and whether it was unusual or not?
NOAA provides this analysis of July 2015.
Continental Temperature Anomalies July 2015
|CONTINENT||ANOMALY (1910-2000)||TREND (1910-2015)||RANK|
|°C||°F||°C||°F||(OUT OF 106 YEARS)|
The table shows that no continent had the warmest July ever. Africa came close and also South America, which means a milder mid-winter than usual in the southern hemisphere. So how come they claim a record July?
The answer is provided by another NOAA analysis.
Global Analysis of July 2015
|°C||°F||(OUT OF 136 YEARS)||YEAR(S)||°C||°F|
|Land||+0.96 ± 0.18||+1.73 ± 0.32||Warmest||6th||1998||1.11||2|
|Ocean||+0.75 ± 0.07||+1.35 ± 0.13||Warmest||1st||2015||0.75||1.35|
|Land and Ocean||+0.81 ± 0.14||+1.46 ± 0.25||Warmest||1st||2015||0.81||1.46|
So there you have it. Once again the ocean is making the climate, with July SSTs higher because of the Blob and the long-developing El Nino. And we can expect that with all the heat now being released upward from the water, there will be cooling of SSTs and a La Nina in response.