Arctic Ice Moment of Truth

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 13 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M before descending. Six of the last 13 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short.

During February MASIE and SII both show ice extent hovering around the 13 year average, matching it exactly on day 52 at 14.85M km2. Other recent years were lower until 2019 caught up, before dropping off in the final week of the month.  We shall see what this year does with only 10 to 14 days left before the March maximum is recorded.

Region 2020052 Day 052 Average 2020-Ave. 2018052 2020-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14875470 14857903 17567 14312247 563223
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070222 433 1070445 210
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965972 964814 1158 955104 10868
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087039 98 1087120 18
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897824 21 897845 0
 (5) Kara_Sea 906378 917433 -11055 917969 -11591
 (6) Barents_Sea 648148 613817 34332 552077 96071
 (7) Greenland_Sea 538698 613963 -75264 428606 110092
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1502218 1495888 6330 1757430 -255211
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 853074 1209 853109 1174
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1259931 1260881 -950 1260838 -907
 (11) Central_Arctic 3246709 3213870 32839 3150241 96468
 (12) Bering_Sea 731776 685013 46763 194708 537067
 (13) Baltic_Sea 25524 104858 -79334 94201 -68677
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 1117881 1022253 95628 1060733 57148

As reported previously, Pacific sea ice is a big part of the story this year.  Out of the last 13 years, on day 52 only two years had Okhotsk ice extent higher than 2020, and only four years had higher Bering ice. Those surpluses offset a small deficit in Greenland Sea ice.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

Drift ice in Okhotsk Sea at sunrise.

 

Two of Four Seasons Gone, Because Climate Change

From the NewsThump, Vivaldi’s Four Seasons reduced to Two in light of climate change.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Antonio Vivaldi’s Four Seasons concerti will now consist of just two seasons, because that’s all there are these days.

The conductor of the London Philharmonic Orchestra Simon Williams commented, “The current generation doesn’t really understand the idea of four different seasons of weather, so in a bid to appeal to a modern audience we’ve updated the concerti to be more representative of 300 years of environmental damage.

“Overall, the suite will be much more discordant and unpredictable. The part representing winter will be doubled in length and feature woodwind solos to signify the yearly rising of floodwaters. A choir of scientists will sing the aria ‘Te Lo Abbiamo Detto’ (We Told You So).

Spring and autumn will be done away with altogether.

“Summer has also been greatly extended, as has the ‘languor caused by the heat’ bit, occasionally broken up strings phrases to represent next door’s kids on the trampoline.”

 

Tallest Climate Tale Winner

Thanks to GWPF for honoring my submission nominating the Tallest Climate Tale of 2019. Their post is We Have A Winner: Tallest Climate Tale of 2019 Text below in italics.Date: 12/02/20GWPF

We have been deliberating hard, and have decided upon a winner for our competition.

At the start of the year, we asked GWPF readers to send us nominations for our search to find the tallest climate tale of 2019. You have not let us down, sending us in entries from around the world.

An honourable mention must go to last year’s winner, Andrew Kissling, from New Zealand, who delivered the goods yet again. Amongst his excellent entries were an article claiming child marriage was increasing because of climate change, and that chips are now an inch shorter, and climate change is to blame.

However, topping the list this year was Ron Clutz, who many of you may be familiar with from his blog, Science Matters. The judges felt that his entry captured perfectly the absurdity of today’s climate change debate.

The article claimed that rational thought itself may become a victim of climate change. We at the GWPF know that rational discussion about climate change is already very rare.

Congratulations to Ron, who wins a bottle of whisky and two GWPF books (Population Bombed and The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened).

Original Post:  CO2 Hysteria Impairs Thinking

An article by James Pero at Daily Mail confirms suspicions about muddled thinking regarding global warming/climate change.  Is carbon dioxide making it harder to THINK straight?   Excerpts in italics with my comments and images.

Rising CO2 levels may hinder cognitive function and could decrease decision-making efficiency by 50 PERCENT in 2100, study says. 

  • Carbon emissions may have a drastic impact on cognitive function
  • Researchers say that CO2 may decrease classroom decision making
  • It could reduce decision making by as much as 50 percent in 2100, they say

Rational thought may eventually become a victim of climate change according to a new study.

[Well, media announcements and studies like this one show rationality is already greatly compromised.]

Research presented by scientists at the annual American Geophysical Union and submitted to the journal GeoHealth suggests that increased CO2 may soon diminish humans’ capacity to think clearly.

The findings follow previous studies that show how indoor air pollution and poor ventilation can hinder people’s ability to perform mentally, including a study published last year from the University College London.

[Note the chart at the top showing that CO2 in the atmosphere is 410ppm (parts/per/million), or 0.04%.  Note also that health and safety regulations for buildings expect no harmful effects below 5000 ppm, which would be 10 times the present amount.]

‘Human cognitive performance declines with an increase in CO2’, the researchers wrote in the paper.

‘Direct impacts of CO2 emissions on human cognitive performance may be unavoidable.’

Those studies concluded that circulating air and regulating the amount of CO2 trapped in a room can help mitigate the effects of too much CO2, but new research suggests ventilation in a climate change-addled future might just make matters worse.

[This diagram shows the ratio of human to natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time.

The amount of CO2 flowing from humans into the atmosphere is miniscule (about 4%) compared to CO2 flowing from the oceans and biosphere (96%).  Thus the human component presently is 17ppm (or 0.002%).  Eliminating our emissions entirely would have no discernable impact on the total amount.  See Who to Blame for Rising CO2?]

It also used two different climate models – one that factors in reductions in CO2 and another that projects conditions if emissions continue unfettered.

In the model that factors in some emissions intervention, scientists say decision making in the classroom could decrease by 25 percent while a model without emissions mitigation could see a whopping 50 percent reduction.

Though previous studies have shown a correlation between brain function and CO2, not much is currently understood about why the gas affects our brains the way it does.

As noted by Gizmodo, a previous study on CO2’s correlation to brain function showed that an increase as little as 5 percent had reduces brain activity.

[Let’s see: A 5% increase in CO2 would be a leap from 0.041% to 0.043%, requiring some fine sensors to even detect it.  Doubtful that brains are that sensitive to the gas itself, but obviously there is huge sensitivity to the idea of rising CO2.

OTOH plants have sensed and appreciated the increased CO2 as shown in the greening of the planet since 1982]
No current research has studied the kind of long-term exposure that will would result from rampant climate change.

As noted by researchers, however, all of the adverse effects of CO2 on mental performance can still be averted by making a concerted effort to lower emissions and stave off climate change.

This is your brain on CO2 hysteria. Just say no!

 

Jan. 30 Ordinary Arctic Ice

A previous post noted the Pacific ice see saw had returned, with Bering Sea slow to recover.  The image above shows that now both Pacific seas are recovering ice strongly in the second half of January 2020. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing was slow to begin but 2020 extents are now quite ordinary and tracking the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive). Okhotsk Sea on the left has steadily grown 250k km2 ice extent to be currently at 68% of last March maximum.  Bering on the right added 170k km2 and now exceeds last March max by 3%.

On the Atlantic side there has also been some ice growth on the margins.  Notably Barents Sea on the right has added 160k km2 to exceed its average by 40%, and is now 95% of last March max.  Also visible on the upper left is ice forming in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Baffin Bay ice slowly extending south. The graph below shows the ice extent growing during January compared to some other years and the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 13 year average increases about 1.2M km2 during January, up to 14.4M km2. MASIE 2020 stated with a slower icing rate, dropping 300k km2 lower than average before catching up to reaching the average on January 19 and tracking closely since.  Other years were lower at this point, while MASIE and SII 2020 are showing nearly the same extents.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Deficits in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay are offset by a 230k km2 surplus of Barents Sea ice.  At this point the surplus in Okhotsk exceeds the Bering deficit. 

Region 2020030 Day 030 Average 2020-Ave. 2018030 2020-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14333538 14344185  -10647  13819038 514500 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070223  432  1070445 210 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965972 965999  -27  965971
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087133  1087120 18 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897842  897845
 (5) Kara_Sea 934901 914385  20515  880656 54245 
 (6) Barents_Sea 783310 553930  229380  471973 311337 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 482444 588685  -106241  506539 -24094 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1260581 1347235  -86653  1384973 -124392 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 853059  1223  853109 1174 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260192 1260815  -623  1260838 -646 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3212864 3207580  5284  3176620 36244 
 (12) Bering_Sea 584617 645329  -60712  402199 182419 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 12939 80631  -67693  37943 -25004 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 894008 807371  86637  763761 130247 

Footnote:  Interesting comments on January 13 by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Arctic sea ice extent

The positive AO is conducive to sea ice growth and Arctic sea ice growth rate continues to grow slowly and remains well below normal but higher than recent winters; the weather pattern remains favorable for further sea ice growth. Negative sea ice anomalies exist in three regions: the Bering Sea, around Greenland-Canadian Archipelagos and Barents-Kara Seas. The anomalies in the North Pacific sector have shrunk (Figure 16), and based on model forecasts negative sea ice anomalies in the Bering Sea can shrink further in the next two weeks. Below normal sea ice in and around Greenland and the Canadian Archipelagos may favor a negative winter NAO, though there are no signs of such a scenario. Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Despite a strongly postive AO snow cover has advanced across Eurasia and is now near decadal means. And if the snowfall forecasts for Europe ever verify it could advance further. Above normal snow cover extent in October, favors a strengthened Siberian high, cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter followed by cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

2020 Pacific Ice Rebounds

A previous post reprinted below pointed out how Pacific ice recovers in fits and starts, often see sawing between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  Now both of them are growing faster than the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).  The image above shows how much colder is Alaska this year versus 2019, probably related to Bering icing over.  In the last 9 days, Bering added 100k km2, now up to 85% of last March max.  Okhotsk added 150k km2 up to 67% of last March max.

The graph shows how January 2020 compared to 13 year average and some other years of interest.

This year’s recovery is matching and slightly exceeding average, and ahead of other recent years.  MASIE shows extents slightly higher than SII.

By January there are not many places where Arctic ice extent can grow.  All the Eurasian shelf seas are full, as is the case on the CanAm side: Beaufort, CAA, Hudson Bay covered completely.  Barents  and Greenland Seas have some room to grow, as does Baffin Bay.  But mainly the variability is on the Pacific side, where the usual Bering/Okhotsk see saw is reappearing.

As we have seen in past winters, ice in the Pacific Arctic tends to grow in fits and spurts, often alternating between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  The above image of the first two weeks of 2020 shows Okhotsk on the left growing ice steadily while Bering waffled back and forth ending with almost the same extent.  Combined the two seas ice extents are slightly below the 13 year average at this time, due to Bering’s slow recovery.

The January graph shows MASIE and SII reporting the same pace of ice recovery and matching 2019.  This is somewhat below the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive) and higher than 2017 and 2018. The table below shows the distribution of ice extent among the Arctic regions on January 14.

Region 2020014 Day 014 Average 2020-Ave. 2018014 2020-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13541376 13776703 -235327 13340428 200948
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070223 432 1070445 210
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965972 965812 160 965971 1
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087133 4 1087120 18
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897842 3 897845 0
 (5) Kara_Sea 932936 909656 23280 925247 7689
 (6) Barents_Sea 619526 508236 111290 393026 226500
 (7) Greenland_Sea 483377 610574 -127197 521896 -38519
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1039079 1172487 -133408 1173039 -133960
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 853058 1225 853109 1174
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260192 1251600 8592 1260838 -646
 (11) Central_Arctic 3233354 3210543 22811 3194383 38971
 (12) Bering_Sea 414963 521989 -107026 241830 173133
 (13) Baltic_Sea 8863 43903 -35040 24486 -15623
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 651004 626433 24571 696684 -45681

2019 NH ice is 235k km2 below the 13-year average, or 1.7%, and 200k km2 more than 2018 on that date.  The deficits are in Bering, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay, partly offset by surpluses in Barents, Kara and Okhotsk.

cg524a47d218458

The next month or so will show how the Pacific ice shapes up.

seesaw

 

 

 

Oranges Disprove Global Warming

Paul Noel writes at Quora in response to a question: What are the best arguments of the movement “global warming deniers” to back their version of the story? Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Well since this question has only been answered by those who want to say no such science exists It has to be answered.

Here is an absolute proof that there is no global warming going on. It absolutely has no denial possible.

In 1899 there was a large swath of the Southern USA that was used for Commercial Citrus Growing. Citrus Trees do not tolerate hard freezing. In fact they are tropical plants with only very slight ability to withstand freezing conditions. Their fruit is even more tender, and so a Commercial Producer cannot tolerate any significant extended freezing. In Florida for example the Citrus producers have methods to withstand FROST. These are pretty amazing. (See photo above)

They literally spray their trees with water so that as the water freezes it prevents the citrus from freezing as the sugar content keeps the freezing point slightly lower than water. This method only works against light freezes of short duration. It often results in having to sell the crop in a rush to juice operations at loss of value.

So Citrus Commercial Production is prevented in all but areas with 365 day growing seasons.

The large swath of growing included about 1/2 of eastern Texas essentially south of Tyler Texas. It included almost all of Louisiana south of Interstate 20. It included Most of Mississippi south of Jackson and across Alabama up to Evergreen. It then extended across Georgia essentially from Columbus to Augusta and then up South Carolina all the way to North Carolina and a coastal strip of North Carolina up to almost Virginia. It also included All of Florida.

Basically this map shows in Zone 8b and slightly into Zone 8a the region that used to raise citrus. Today none can be raised outside of Zone 9b or higher. Actually the only safe in zone 10.

Today due to severe cooling of the environment, it only includes 4 of the most southern counties along the Rio Grande Valley in Texas and the southern part of Florida. Over the past 120 years, this has almost deleted Citrus growing from much of the southern part of North America.

This is the remaining Florida range of Citrus.

There is no remaining commercial citrus in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina or North Carolina.

Now if you were to pick any location that was better for determining the global temperature you could not do it. This is the focal point for all of the global heat circulation of the world’s oceans. The heat focuses on the Yucatan Channel, goes through into the Gulf of Mexico forms a loop, shearing off much rainfall and heat into the Southeastern USA and subsequently going out the Florida Strait as the Gulf Stream, the world’s largest and warmest ocean current.

As such the temperature and climate of the area is the best representation of the world climate condition.

This is the reason that of the wettest states in the USA 4 of the top 5 are in this area.

#5 Florida
#4 Alabama
#3 Mississippi
#2 Louisiana
(#1 is Hawaii)

Now that is fact. That is solid evidence. Silly claims and graphs cannot refute it.

Now some may point to an occasional remaining group of trees or such , but the fact is that commercial citrus is out of that region. The remnants are proof of exactly what I have said here.

See Also:  Oceans Make Climate: SST, SSS and Precipitation Linked

 

Unhinged Climate Celebs: Krugman and Cusack

David Simon writes at Real Clear Markets Paul Krugman Is a Global Warming Alarmist. Don’t Be Like Him. Excerpts in italics with my bolds

In 2004, TheGuardian.com reported a secret Pentagon warning about global warming: “major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.”

In 2008, Al Gore announced that “the entire North ‘polarized’ cap will disappear in five years.”

In 2009, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon declared that “[t]he world has less than 10 years to halt the global rise in greenhouse gas emissions if we are to avoid catastrophic consequences for people and the planet.”

All wrong.

Yet the supposedly authoritative statements of global warming doom continue. In a January 3, 2020 column titled “Apocalypse becomes normal”, Paul Krugman in his usual understated way told us that “[o]n our current trajectory, Florida as a whole will eventually be swallowed by the sea” and “[m]uch of India will eventually become uninhabitable.”

Krugman makes the same mistake as other false prophets of global warming doom. His and their predictions are works of science fiction because, contrary to scientific principles, they ignore the facts about global warming’s actual impact.

The facts instead show that global warming is a non-problem that warrants no action.

First, the earth’s temperature has been rising at a microscopically slow pace. NASA’s data set for global temperatures goes back to 1880 and shows that since that year, the earth’s temperature has risen by only 1.14° C. An increase of 1.14° C over 139 years translates to an average increase of only 0.008° C per year.

Second, a warmer earth saves lives. In 2015, the prestigious medical journal The Lancet reported that worldwide, cold kills over 17 times more people than heat. A group of 22 scientists examined over 74 million deaths in the United States, China, Brazil, and ten other countries in 1985-2012. They found that cold caused 7.29 percent of these deaths, while heat caused only 0.42 percent. And of these temperature-related deaths, “moderately hot and cold temperatures” caused 88.85 percent of the deaths, while “extreme” temperatures caused only 11.15 percent.

Third, while the earth’s temperature has risen, the number of natural disaster deaths has been sharply declining. In 2019, EMDAT, The International Disaster Database, reported that since the 1920s, the number of people killed annually by natural disasters has declined by over 80 percent. And this happened as the world’s population quadrupled from less than two billion to over seven and half billion.

My Mind is Made Up, Don’t Confuse Me with the Facts. H/T Bjorn Lomborg, WUWT

Fourth, the global air pollution death rate has fallen by almost 50 percent since 1990. In 2019, University of Oxford economist Max Roser and researcher Hannah Ritchie reported in Our World in Data that “since 1990 the number of deaths per 100,000 people have nearly halved.”

Fifth, any impact on the economy is likely to be minimal. In 2019, the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that if the earth’s temperature rises by 0.01° C per year through 2100 – 25 percent faster than it actually has since 1880 – total U.S. GDP in 2100 will be 1.88 percent lower in 2100 than it would otherwise be.

But the Congressional Budget Office in 2019 projected that in 2100, GDP per person will be about 180 percent higher (based on its projection of a 1.3 percent annual real long-term potential labor force productivity growth rate). So even if the reduction that NBER estimates pans out, GDP per person will still be about 178 percent higher.

In other words, per person income in 2100 will be almost triple today’s level, regardless of global warming.

Finally, restricting carbon emissions to attempt to stop global warming is the wrong path – even the most severe restrictions will have almost zero impact on the earth’s temperature. Climatologist Patrick J. Michaels calculated that if the United States eliminated all carbon emissions – which would not only require Americans to give up fossil fuels, but also to stop breathing (to cease exhaling carbon dioxide) – it would only reduce global warming by a negligible 0.052° C by 2050.

Don’t make the same mistake as Krugman and other false prophets of global warming doom. Check the facts. Global warming has not been harmful and presents no danger to future generations.

And then there’s John Cusack.  Zachary Leeman writes at RT:  Cusack, Bernie’s prophet of doom: Only 10-12 years to stop climate change & ‘predatory capitalism’.  Excerpts is italics with my bolds.

It appears actor John Cusack took the climate change messages in his film ‘2012’ really, really seriously, because he says Earth only has a handful of years left — unless Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is elected US President.

payn_c16807820190906120100

Introducing Sanders in Exeter, New Hampshire, on Saturday, the 53-year-old actor threw out a doomsday scenario where the world only has a “10 to 12 year window” to reverse the effects of climate change and combat the “predatory capitalism” that is supposedly fueling it.

“The billionaires are getting nervous and all the corporate media is — they hate us, they don’t hate us, they’re confused. And it seems like every conceivable power structure on Earth is trying to kill or derail our movement, but we’re still here,” Cusack announced to the assembled Sanders supporters.

“We know this form of capitalism takes and takes; it takes whatever, whenever, however it wants. It’ll take our lives, it’ll take our labor, our spirit, our air and water, even our earth.”

Cusack’s climate change fear-mongering may have played to the crowd of Bernie supporters, but he isn’t flipping many votes, judging by the wider reaction on social media.

“The self-awareness of @johncusack is undetectable with an electron microscope,” actor and director Nick Searcy tweeted in response to Cusack’s speech.

‘Full Metal Jacket’ actor Adam Baldwin questioned whether Cusack is suggesting war with China with his doomsday prediction, considering the country leads the United States in CO2 emissions.

Others criticized Cusack, who endorsed Sanders for president in February of last year, for his focus on criticizing capitalism and the “one percent of the one percent,” when he has himself become wealthy from his work in capitalist Hollywood.

Tom Elliott tweet: 

Actor John Cusack lecturing those in the bottom 99%

Gosh advice from Hollywood is always welcomed

Footnote:  If you want to talk about predatory capitalism, consider the billions raked in by Big Wind and Big Solar moguls.  See The End of Wind and Solar Parasites

wind-energy-myth

 

Jan. 19 Arctic Ice Returns to Mean

A previous post noted the Pacific ice see saw had returned, with Bering Sea slow to recover.  The image above shows recovery of Arctic sea ice extent over the month of January 2020. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing was slow to begin but has now allowed 2020 to match the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive). Okohotsk Sea on the left has grown ice extent steadily to be currently at 66% of last March maximum.  Bering on the right waffled back and forth but gained strongly the last few days.

The graph below shows the ice extent growing during January compared to some other years and the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 13 year average increases about 1.2M km2 during January, up to 14.4M km2. MASIE 2020 stated with a slower icing rate, dropping 300k km2 lower than average before catching up to reaching the average on January 19.  Both 2018 and 2017 were lower at this point, while MASIE and SII are tracking closely together.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Deficits in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay are offset by surpluses in Kara and Barents Seas.  At this point the surplus in Okhotsk exceeds the Bering deficit. Going forward, most of the additional ice extent will in the Pacific Seas.

Region 2020019 Day 019 Average 2020-Ave. 2018019 2020-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13933540 13939872  -6332  13431421 502118 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070223  432  1070445 210 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965972 965999  -27  965971
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087133  1087120 18 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897842  897845
 (5) Kara_Sea 933810 911944  21867  902003 31807 
 (6) Barents_Sea 646750 502965  143784  286684 360065 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 525324 600387  -75063  453112 72212 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1155618 1245934  -90317  1355009 -199391 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 853058  1225  853109 1174 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260192 1257480  2712  1260838 -646 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3239662 3203861  35801  3161866 77796 
 (12) Bering_Sea 443027 570321  -127294  309601 133425 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 9625 52416  -42791  24115 -14491 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 817160 669235  147925  782693 34467 

Footnote:  Interesting comments on January 13 by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Arctic sea ice extent

The positive AO is conducive to sea ice growth and Arctic sea ice growth rate continues to grow slowly and remains well below normal but higher than recent winters; the weather pattern remains favorable for further sea ice growth. Negative sea ice anomalies exist in three regions: the Bering Sea, around Greenland-Canadian Archipelagos and Barents-Kara Seas. The anomalies in the North Pacific sector have shrunk (Figure 16), and based on model forecasts negative sea ice anomalies in the Bering Sea can shrink further in the next two weeks. Below normal sea ice in and around Greenland and the Canadian Archipelagos may favor a negative winter NAO, though there are no signs of such a scenario. Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Despite a strongly postive AO snow cover has advanced across Eurasia and is now near decadal means. And if the snowfall forecasts for Europe ever verify it could advance further. Above normal snow cover extent in October, favors a strengthened Siberian high, cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter followed by cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

2020 Pacific Ice See Saw Returns

By January there are not many places where Arctic ice extent can grow.  All the Eurasian shelf seas are full, as is the case on the CanAm side: Beaufort, CAA, Hudson Bay covered completely.  Barents  and Greenland Seas have some room to grow, as does Baffin Bay.  But mainly the variability is on the Pacific side, where the usual Bering/Okhotsk see saw is reappearing.

As we have seen in past winters, ice in the Pacific Arctic tends to grow in fits and spurts, often alternating between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  The above image of the first two weeks of 2020 shows Okhotsk on the left growing ice steadily while Bering waffled back and forth ending with almost the same extent.  Combined the two seas ice extents are slightly below the 13 year average at this time, due to Bering’s slow recovery.

The January graph shows MASIE and SII reporting the same pace of ice recovery and matching 2019.  This is somewhat below the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive) and higher than 2017 and 2018. The table below shows the distribution of ice extent among the Arctic regions on January 14.

Region 2020014 Day 014 Average 2020-Ave. 2018014 2020-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13541376 13776703 -235327 13340428 200948
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070223 432 1070445 210
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965972 965812 160 965971 1
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087133 4 1087120 18
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897842 3 897845 0
 (5) Kara_Sea 932936 909656 23280 925247 7689
 (6) Barents_Sea 619526 508236 111290 393026 226500
 (7) Greenland_Sea 483377 610574 -127197 521896 -38519
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1039079 1172487 -133408 1173039 -133960
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 853058 1225 853109 1174
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260192 1251600 8592 1260838 -646
 (11) Central_Arctic 3233354 3210543 22811 3194383 38971
 (12) Bering_Sea 414963 521989 -107026 241830 173133
 (13) Baltic_Sea 8863 43903 -35040 24486 -15623
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 651004 626433 24571 696684 -45681

2019 NH ice is 235k km2 below the 13-year average, or 1.7%, and 200k km2 more than 2018 on that date.  The deficits are in Bering, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay, partly offset by surpluses in Barents, Kara and Okhotsk.

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The next month or so will show how the Pacific ice shapes up.

seesaw

 

 

 

Turtles Vs. Trump

Apologies for the image; I couldn’t find one with turtles wearing lawyers suits.  Again it is ambulance chasers with legal training targeting deep pockets, as explained in USA Today article Trump administration sued for failing to protect green sea turtles from climate change.  Excerpts on this latest example of climate derangement syndrome are in italics with my bolds.

Several environmental groups filed a lawsuit Wednesday claiming several agencies in the Trump administration have failed to protect green sea turtle habitat as required by the Endangered Species Act.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, says the turtles’ nesting beaches in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, as well as their ocean habitat, face threats from sea level rise brought on by climate change and plastic pollution, according to a news release from the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the plaintiffs.

Other plaintiffs are the Sea Turtle Oversight Protection and the Turtle Island Restoration Network. The lawsuit asks the court to rule that several federal agencies are in violation of the Endangered Species Act and order them to designate sites – unspecified as yet –as critical habitat for the turtles.

Defendants include:

Interior Department Secretary David Bernhardt
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross
Margaret Everson, principal deputy director of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
Chris Oliver, assistant administrator for fisheries at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
National Marine Fisheries Service
A UPS driver started posting dog pictures in 2013:It’s now a viral sensation with 1.6M likes

Climate change, sea level rise
The lawsuit acknowledges that green sea turtle populations have been on a general increase over the last few years, but notes the National Marine Fisheries Service and Fish & Wildlife Service found in 2016 that threats from climate change and sea level rise mean the turtles still need protection under the Endangered Species Act.

The act prohibits federal agencies from authorizing activities that will destroy or harm a listed species’ critical habitat.

Floridians should be proud of how far we’ve come with green sea turtle recovery, but the fight’s not over yet,” said Jaclyn Lopez, Florida director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Now the feds have to step up and ensure that sea turtles have safe passage to nest on our beaches. These imperiled animals can’t afford any more delays.”

Green turtle populations around the world are listed as either endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

 

 

A 144-pound sea turtle was rescued by Indian River County police after being struck by a boat.