2018 Hurricane Prediction – Strongest Cycle in 70 Years

Monday, Sept. 18, 2017, GOES East satellite image provided by NASA shows the eye of Hurricane Maria as it nears Dominica and before it struck Puerto Rico. NASA /AP

This prediction comes from Global Weather Oscillations, the only hurricane forecaster to predict the 2017 season accurately.  The story is from 721News 2018 Hurricane Prediction – Strongest Cycle in 70 Years

Links at the end provide more explanation of GWO’s unique model based upon ocean water pulses linked to solar/lunar activities, nothing to do with CO2.  Text below from 712News with my bolds.

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) was cited by news media as the only major hurricane prediction organization that correctly predicted the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season from beginning to end, and the destructive United States hurricane landfalls.

The media also noted that when the hurricane season began last year, “nearly every major weather agency predicted a normal 2017 hurricane season – but only Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) had an accurate forecast” – with a prediction for a destructive hurricane season with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, four major hurricanes – and 2 major impact hurricanes for the United States.

GWO also predicted the United States would have 6 named storms and 3 hurricanes making landfall in 2017 – and where they would occur. Just as predicted, the U.S. ended up with six named storms and 3 hurricanes. GWO predicted that the Florida Peninsula would break out of their 12-year hurricane drought with a major category 3-4 hurricane making landfall on the south tip of Florida. GWO also predicted that Texas could break out of their 8-year hurricane drought with a landfalling hurricane just above Corpus Christi – and a Category 1 hurricane striking the upper Gulf Coast. The 2017 landfalling hurricanes ended up being – Harvey, Irma and Nate.

Professor David Dilley – senior research and prediction scientist for Global Weather Oscillations – prepares hurricane and tropical storm predictions for 11 zones stretching from New England to Texas. By using Climate Pulse Technology developed by Mr. Dilley, GWO can issue accurate zone predictions for release in January – well before the beginning of the hurricane season.

Professor David Dilley, states that the “Climate Pulse Technology Model” is based on natural rhythm cycles that control hurricane landfall cycles and the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center. By utilizing this technology, GWO has issued the most accurate predictions by any organization during the past 10 years. The preseason zone predictions are so accurate – updates to the forecasts are not required during the hurricane season. Although GWO does offer special weekly hurricane outlook webinars and tracking webinars when a storm may threaten the United States. GWO is a working partner with the International Hurricane Protection Association – INHPA.

Prediction: 2018 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season — (includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico)

As predicted by Mr. Dilley and GWO – last year (2017) was the costliest year on record for the United States, and one of the most destructive. Mr. Dilley says that “some United States zones are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years.” This is a Natural Climate Pulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1930s and 1940s – and is now repeating.

Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 – and possibly another record breaker. Although it will be strikingly similar to last year- some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. There is the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls. On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

The reason for another destructive hurricane season is 3-fold. The ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin (red and orange in the graphic), and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening close to the United States. Mr. Dilley also expects the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will again be in a favorable location – thus allowing more named storms to maintain strength – or strengthen as they move from east to west across the Atlantic toward the United States.

Source: Global Weather Oscillations

Then we come to the last item – El Niño. GWO’s Climate Pulse Technology model indicates that the Tropical South Pacific Ocean temperatures where El Niño events typically form – will warm significantly during late winter and approach weak El Niño conditions during the spring- much like the El Niño scare of last year. However, all years are not the same – therefore it could mature enough to form a very weak El Niño, but not strong enough to dampen the hurricane season. Historical records indicate that moderate to strong El Nino events dampen hurricane activity – whereas years with very weak El Niño conditions can be associated with active hurricane seasons if a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle is in place – and it is.

Background

Global Weather Oscillations

AMO: Atlantic Climate Pulse

Hurricane Science, not Fiction

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7 comments

  1. Hifast · April 7

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

    Like

  2. angech · April 8

    Hmm. No.
    If he gets it right he is god.
    He is not god.
    If he gets it right it is sheer luck.
    Global Temperature anomalies should cool for another 6 months.
    No one knows If an El Nino develops at the end of the year.
    So if there is a La Nina but lots of Hurricanes is he right because he is wrong??
    Did we not have some La Nina conditions last year?
    Hurricanes capriciously develop and cross coasts.
    There is a 30 year average recurrence rate. Hence where ever and whenever he predicts a hurricane to hit he has only a 3.33 chance, per hurricane of being correct and that is only on place.
    Much less chance if nominating the time as well.
    It is no good saying I said New Orleans will be hit in June and it hits in July .
    That is like 100% wrong.
    Keep his prediction up and redo this post in 8 months Ron.
    Cheers.

    Others agree.
    The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 through the end of November.
    “Researchers at Colorado State University predict this will be a slightly above-average season, with 14 tropical storms in 2018. Seven are expected to become hurricanes, which have a wind speed of at least 74 mph. Three of those seven are expected to be major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, with winds reaching a minimum of 111 mph.”
    ” The 2017 hurricane season turned out to be one of the costliest and most destructive ever, thanks largely to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. All told, there were 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic region, six of which were category 3 or higher.”
    One remembers that at 2/3 rds of the way through this was on track to be the busiest season ever, until it ran out of puff. Did he really predict all this anomalous behaviour beforehand?
    Really?
    I did not see this claim made at the time.

    Like

    • John Roberts · September 11

      David Dilley never claimed to be God, so your assertion is absurd. Furthermore, his predictive model tends to be more accurate than most. Look out now, here comes hurricane Florence and two more right behind her. And on a closing note, Dilley predicts the mini-ice age to being in the mid 2020s, with very cold winters with increasing instensity, leading to massive crop failures and relocations of people. You would do well to heed this information, because time is very short.

      Like

  3. Ron Clutz · April 8

    angech, it’s a prediction of an active Atlantic storm season, which others share. La Nina conditions favor Atlantic storms due to reduced wind shear. Last year a weak El Nino did not prevent those hurricanes, and likely will not this year either. As we know, several factors produce storms and no one knows the future, except the certainty that any storm will be blamed on fossil fuels.

    Like

  4. angech · April 8

    As we know, several factors produce storms and no one knows the future, except the certainty that any storm will be blamed on fossil fuels.
    Agree.
    Not having a go at you.
    Will be interesting to see this play out.
    I live in fear of a bad season being used for those purposes.
    Would love to see some of those prediction sites and dates listed and see if they do occur.
    Not that we will not have hurricanes. Just that 100’s of people predict so one will be right somewhere.
    This was not just a prediction of an active hurricane season, I can do that and be wrong half the time. It was a prediction of dates and places.
    No way.
    So worth putting up to show up.
    Not worth putting up the hundreds as one will always be right somewhere.

    Like

  5. Simon · August 8

    All Weather Stations make predictions. Predictions are as the name suggests – indicating that a certain number of storms and hurricanes are likely to occur; it MAY or MAY NOT turn out that way. GWO appears to be the most accurate in predicting hurricane season outlooks in recent years due to their climate pulse method. Well done. It is not expected of any weather station to have 100% accuracy in predicting. We can appreciate all weather stations and their efforts to predict each season.

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · August 8

      Thanks for commenting Simon. As you say, GWO may have it wrong this year, what with some cooling in North Atlantic reducing the energy available. OTOH, the pipeline of tropical depressions is starting to form in the eastern Atlantic. Hold onto your hat.

      Like

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