Ice Ice Everywhere, Not a Drop to Drink

The Rime of the Ancient Mariner

Three weeks into June, Arctic ice is still plentiful  The graph below show ice extents up to yesterday, June 23, 2017, day 174.

After a dip, 2017 is again above the decadal average, 300k km2 greater than 2007, and 500k km2 larger than 2016.  SII 2017 is presently showing 400k km2 less ice than MASIE does with its higher resolution.  2016 went below 10M km2 for the first time on its way to an annual minimum of 4.2M in September.

Barents Sea shows a surplus of 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year compared to average and other years.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.  It may yet beat out 2014 as the highest in the last 11 years.

What a difference a year makes.

The table below shows day 174 ice extents in total and by regions for 2017 compared to the decadal average and 2007.

Region 2017174 Day 174
Average
2017-Ave. 2007174 2017-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 10526281 10452265 74016 10222886 303395
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 879223 950985 -71762 937004 -57781
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 654738 779757 -125019 702860 -48122
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 995761 1050504 -54742 991145 4616
 (4) Laptev_Sea 802192 761406 40785 698410 103781
 (5) Kara_Sea 684120 650542 33578 687443 -3323
 (6) Barents_Sea 223133 150741 72392 206816 16317
 (7) Greenland_Sea 558685 549299 9386 549654 9031
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 713168 627004 86164 624502 88666
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 788679 790846 -2167 780041 8637
 (10) Hudson_Bay 961113 880059 81054 810482 150632
 (11) Central_Arctic 3245726 3213273 32452 3219126 26599
 (12) Bering_Sea 3489 21931 -18442 5743 -2254
 (13) Baltic_Sea 0 9 -9 0 0
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 15063 24399 -9335 7983 7080

You can see that Pacific melting is producing deficits to average that are more than offset by surpluses elsewhere.  Bering and Okhotsk started first, but are now inconsequential.  BCE ( Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) combined are about 250k km2  below average.  On the Atlantic side, the largest surpluses appear in Barents, Baffin and Hudson Bay, while the Central Arctic is still at its annual maximum.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

Meanwhile, some Newfoundland harbours are still full of ice.

Ice in the harbour – Raleigh, Great Northern Peninsula. Still blocked by ice a week ago. h/t Newfoundsander

 

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5 comments

  1. TinyCO2 · 28 Days Ago

    I’ll be honest. I’ve been watching ice melt and regrow since 2007 and the Jacques Cousteau style commentry about the life of baby ice surviving the summer to become a yearling in its first winter. I still don’t understand what clues portend a good or a bad ice season. I know a lot of ice is lost blowing out of the Fram Strait, even in winter but last year I expected to be good because there was a lot of circular wind and not so much southerly drift. I do know that high pressure in the Uk tends to keep the Arctic winds heading east and low pressure systems here see a waterfall of ice along Greenland. Last years wind pattern did keep the ice close to the Russian shore, away from the exit but the ice didn’t rebound as I expected in the winter.

    This year the winds have been low and circulating in the Arctic but the ice is well broken up. It’s thicker through the Canadian Archi… Archep…. islands and up against them in the Archtic but the ice is thinner and vanishing fast from the Russian side. The possition of the ice isn’t good for keeping it in the Arctic. But then again – I still don’t understand what causes a good or bad year.

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · 28 Days Ago

      Tiny, the whole thing is fascinating because it is so unpredictable. Alarmists believe Arctic ice must decline because temperatures must rise because CO2 keeps increasing. But actually, in any year the extents vary with the intrusion of warm water (mostly Atlantic), with winds, and with weather (cloudiness, especially). CO2 has not much to do with it. But since they regard it as a sign of global warming, it beats watching.

      Like

      • Ron Clutz · 28 Days Ago

        I meant “bears watching.”

        Like

    • Ron Clutz · 27 Days Ago

      I forgot to mention that even warmists are now acknowledging that internal climate processes are driving at least half of ice extent decline in last 2 decades.
      See https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/03/17/honey-i-shrunk-the-arctic-ice-not/

      Like

  2. Hifast · 28 Days Ago

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

    Like

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