Arctic Mayday? Not

On May1, we have the complete Arctic ice extent record for April 2016.  So we can look at how the melt season is progressing. As you can see, the ice is down a little, but no reason to put out a distress signal.

These are results from MASIE, the most accurate dataset. SII from NOAA is shown with the data available as of today. Clearly, SII is having unresolved technical difficulties, and April stats are NA.

MASIE shows 2016 less than the ten-year average and slightly less than last year at end of April. 2016 average for April is about 200k km2 less than 2015, exactly offsetting the surpluses of ice in February and March.

Here is how the melting is occurring in the various Arctic seas.

April 30, 2016 day 121 km2 loss % loss
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 1774019 11.77%
 (6) Barents_Sea 250990 41.87%
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 461154 28.04%
 (12) Bering_Sea 432513 56.30%
 (13) Baltic_Sea 76897 78.80%
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 800810 61.19%

The losses are the difference from the recorded maximums. All other seas are at or more than 96% of max.

Since some seas are not at max on the day of NH max, adding losses from individual seas will vary from the NH total.

So May starts with this year and last in similar overall positions. However, the details are different. Here is the two Day 121 extents compared.

Ice Extents 2015 2016 Ice Extent
Region 2015121 2016121 km2 Diff.
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13369057 13303581  -65476
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070445 1070445 0
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965922 965989 67
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1086657 1087120 463
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897809 -36
 (5) Kara_Sea 934122 904700 -29422
 (6) Barents_Sea 441590 348389 -93201
 (7) Greenland_Sea 583660 633443 49783
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1329843 1183429 -146415
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 853214 853178 -36
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1230587 1254066 23479
 (11) Central_Arctic 3240913 3238746 -2167
 (12) Bering_Sea 401377 335719 -65658
 (13) Baltic_Sea 4407 20686 16279
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 326536 507886 181351

The table shows a small overall difference of 65k km2. The losses are principally in Bering, Barents and Baffin bay, offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland Seas. So far the main locations of persistent ice are showing no signs of melting: BCE, Central Arctic and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

Summary

Arctic ice is melting as it normally does in April, and no one knows what will happen in May and afterwards.  Stay tuned.

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2 comments

  1. hunter · May 2

    Great take down of how the fallacious thinking that is so much a part of climate imperialism expresses itself.

    Like

  2. joekano76 · May 2

    Reblogged this on TheFlippinTruth.

    Like

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