Update Aug. 26 Yes PM Pokes Fun at Climatism

Update Aug. 26, 2016 Below

In Feb. 2016 I posted this:

A humorous look at why the global warming campaign and the triumphal Paris COP make sense.

Yes Minister explains it all in an episode from 2013.

h/t to Peter S.

This is an all-too-realistic portrayal of political climatism today.

Update Aug. 26, 2016

Yesterday I realized that BBC had blocked the viewing of the video.  So I sought and found the subtitles for Yes Prime Minister 2013, Episode 6, “A Tsar is Born”.  That final episode for the series began with the dialogue in yesterday’s post Climate Alarms LOL.

Today I provide the dialogue that formed the episode conclusion, and which was the content of the blocked video.

The Characters are:

Sir Humphrey Appleby
Cabinet Secretary

Jim Hacker
Prime Minister

Claire Sutton
Special Policy Adviser

Bernard Woolley
Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister

(Dialogue beginning at 20:16 of “A Tsar is Born”)

Humphrey I have returned with the answer to all your problems.
Global warming.

Jim I thought you were against it?

Humphrey Everybody’s against it, Prime Minister.
I suddenly realised that is the beauty of it.
We can get a unanimous agreement with all of our European partners
to do something about it.

Jim But how can we do something about
something that isn’t happening?

Humphrey It’s much easier to solve an
imaginary problem than a real one.

Jim You believe it’s real?

Humphrey Do you? I don’t know.

Jim Neither do I. Haven’t got the faintest idea!

Humphrey But it doesn’t matter what we think.
If everyone else thinks it’s real, they’ll all want to stop it.
So long as it doesn’t cost too much.
So the question now is, what are we going to do about it?

Jim But if it isn’t happening, what can we do about it?

Humphrey Oh, there’s so much we can do, Prime Minister.
We can impose taxes, we can stiffen European rules about
carbon emissions, rubbish disposal.

We can make massive investments in wind turbines.
We can, in fact, Prime Minister, under your leadership, agree to save the world.

Jim Well, I like that!
But Russia, India, China, Brazil, they’ll never cooperate.

Humphrey They don’t have to. We simply ask them to review their emissions policy.

Jim And will they?

Humphrey Yes. And then they’ll decide not to change it.
So we’ll set up a series of international conferences.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister, you can talk about the future of the planet.

Jim Yes.

Humphrey You can look statesmanlike.
And it’ll be 50 years before anybody can possibly prove you’re wrong.
And you can explain away anything you said before by saying the computer models were flawed.

Jim The voters will love me!

Humphrey You’ll have more government expenditure.

Jim Yes. How will we pay for it? We’re broke.

Humphrey We impose a special global warming tax on fuel now,
but we phase in the actual expenditure gradually. Say, over 50 years?
That will get us out of the hole for now.

Bernard The Germans will be pleased.
They have a big green movement.

Claire And we can even get the progs on board!

Bernard As long as they get more benefits than everyone else.

Jim My broadcast is on Sunday morning.

Humphrey You have a day to get the conference to agree.

Jim That’s not a problem.
The delegates will be desperate for something to announce
when they get home.
There is one problem.
Nothing will have actually been achieved.

Humphrey It will sound as though it has.
So people will think it has.
That’s all that matters!

(Later following the BBC interview, beginning 27:34)

Bernard Oh, magnificent, Prime Minister!

Humphrey I think you got away with it, Jim,
but the cabinet will have been pretty surprised.
We’ll have to square them fast.

Jim Bubbles!

Humphrey We’re not there yet.
After that interview, you’ll need to announce some pretty impressive action.

Jim An initiative.

Humphrey Yes.

Claire A working party?

Humphrey Bit lightweight.

Bernard A taskforce?

Humphrey Not sure.

Jim Do we have enough in the kitty?

Claire It could be one of those initiatives that you announce
but never actually spend the money.

Jim Great. Like the one on child poverty.

Bernard Maybe it should be a government committee?

Jim Well what about a Royal Commission?

Humphrey Yes!
It won’t report for three years, and if we put the right people
on it, they’ll never agree about anything important.

Jim Right! A Royal Commission!
No, wait a minute, that makes it sound as if we think
it’s important but not urgent.

Claire Well, what about a Global Warming Tsar?

Jim Fine! Would that do it?

Humphrey No, I think it might need a bit more than that, Prime Minister.
It’ll mean announcing quite a big unit, and an impressive salary for that Tsar,
to show how much importance you place upon him.

Jim No problem. Who would it be?

Humphrey Ah, well, it can’t be a political figure.
That would be too divisive.
It has to be somebody impartial.

Jim You mean a judge?

Humphrey No, somebody from the real world.
Somebody who knows how to operate the levers of power,
to engage the gears of the Whitehall machine,
to drive the engine of government.

Jim That’s quite a tall order.
Anybody got any ideas?

Humphrey… Could you?

Bernard Oh!

Humphrey Yes, Prime Minister.

The End.

Footnote

CO2 hysteria is addictive. Here’s what it does to your brain:

Just say No!

 

Climate Alarms LOL

We skeptics enjoyed immensely the expert satire of Yes Prime Minister directed at the foibles of climate hysteria.  That clip was available at my post Laughing at Climate Change.  (That video is also now blocked, but I have added the transcript (here).

Now we find there was another even more skewering into the soft underbelly of the beast.  H/T Global Warming Policy Foundation (here).

“Computer models are no different from fashion models: seductive, unreliable, easily corrupted, and they lead sensible people to make fools of themselves.” –Jim Hacker, Yes, Prime Minister

The video was blocked by BBC in my country (Canada), but GWPF helpfully provides the transcript of the juicy bits:

Later in Act One, Scene Two
The phone rings. They all look at it.

Claire Hello? It’s the BBC again. I see. Thanks. (She hangs up.) Piling on the agony. A big new story about global warming has just broken, they’re adding that to the Sunday programme too. Global warming computer models have been proved wrong.

Humphrey How shocking!

Claire The new models show that it’s even worse than previously thought. Much more severe. And happening faster.

Jim Is that supposed to be my fault too?

Claire Everything is at the moment. They want to know why the government is dragging its feet on CO2 emission controls.

Jim (losing it) Do we have to deal with that tonight? As well as …(much has gone wrong for Jim earlier in the play)… Is there anything else, anything else we can pile on me tonight? Oh yes! Global bloody warming, thank you very much!

Claire It’s just that they’re going to add it to the catalogue of your failures. (He gives her a look.) Alleged failures, I mean.

Humphrey Meanwhile, may I suggest that you don’t worry too much about global warming?

Jim Right. I can’t do anything about that tonight, can I?

Humphrey Tell me, how do they know we’re all going to drown in years when the weather forecast was so wrong last Friday?

Jim Because all the scientists agree.

Humphrey So they say. So do the computer models. I know. But why should global warming computer models be any more accurate than financial ones?

Jim Um…

Humphrey Wall Street computer models were designed to prove sub­prime mortgage derivatives were low risk. These computer models are designed to show global warming is getting worse.

Jim Come off it, Humphrey.

Humphrey Remember mad cow disease? Computer models for that proved that we’d be dying in our hundreds of thousands by now. The only thing is, virtually nobody died, did they? Same with the salmonella-in-eggs computer models. Same with swine flu.

Jim You’re suggesting … what, exactly?

Humphrey Global-Warming models leave out nearly all the other possible causes except CO2. And then they say ‘Look, CO2 has caused all this climate change.’

Jim What other causes are there?

Humphrey If the earth were actually getting warmer, one might start by looking at the sun. Solar activity, water vapour, cosmic rays, sunspots, underwater volcanoes –

Jim If? The world is getting hotter, the science is overwhelming, everyone knows that.

Humphrey There’s been no rise in temperature since 1998.

Jim Really? But it was rising, wasn’t it?

Humphrey From 1975 to 1998, yes, absolutely.

Jim That’s what I mean.

Humphrey But it fell from 1940 to 1975. Even though that was a heavily industrialised period, when CO2 shot up. And overall the temperature isn’t rising at all: the hottest year in the twentieth century was 1934.

Jim I read that two thousand five hundred top climate scientists contributed to the last IPCC survey and they all agreed that man­made global warming is a proven fact and trapped greenhouse gases are the cause.

Humphrey Nearly fifty of them agreed. The others didn’t, actually. But their views were left out of the summaries given to the press.

Claire Haven’t you seen that film of the melting icebergs in the Antarctic?

Humphrey Yes. Beautiful, aren’t they?

Claire That’s caused by CO2.

Humphrey No, that’s caused by warm water masses from the Pacific.

Claire Why are the polar bears becoming extinct?

Humphrey Are they?

Claire The computer models say they are.

Humphrey But the people who actually go and count them have found more than there were thirty years ago.

Jim For heaven’s sake, Humphrey! If it’s all such nonsense why does everyone believe it?

Humphrey (amused) Hard to understand, I agree. But some scientists believe it, lots of others want the billions of pounds you can get for research that seems to show that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases, and most of the scientists who disagree can’t get published. Journalists love shock­horror stories, governments want to look virtuous to the voters, lefties want a way to rubbish big oil, and it makes the tree-huggers, whale-savers, anti-capitalists and everyone at the BBC feel holier than thou and warm and fuzzy inside. What’s not to like?

Jim Why hasn’t anyone else said all this?

Humphrey They have. No one wants to hear it.

Jim So wind farms don’t make sense?

Humphrey (chuckles) They certainly do, for all the businessmen who are getting enormous government grants for them. But there isn’t enough wind to be practical. The total output of all the UK wind turbines put together is one-fifth of one decent sized coal-fired power station.

Claire You don’t believe in global warming?

Humphrey My job is not to believe or disbelieve. My job is to weigh up arguments and produce answers. That’s what the Civil Service is for.

Jim I really think you must be misinformed somewhere. Al Gore got the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global Warming.

Humphrey So did Dr Kissinger for his work on the Vietnam War.

Jim has no answer to that.

Jim You think it’s all a scam? I can’t get my head around this.

Humphrey For some people it’s a scam. For most, it’s just the greatest outbreak of collective hysteria since the witchcraft trials in the seventeenth century.

Footnote:

Apologies to anyone who didn’t know LOL is an internet reference meaning “Laughing Out Loud.”  Apparently that number includes Vladimir Putin who recently ended an interview with LOL, but he meant “Look Out Latvia.”

PS Further Wit and Wisdom from Sir Humphrey

Opposition’s about asking all the questions.
And government is about not answering them.

The less you intend to do about something, the more you have to keep talking about it.

“Open government” is a contradiction in terms. You can be open or you can have government.

Citizens don’t have a right to know, theirs is a right to be ignorant. Knowledge only means complicity and guilt, ignorance has a certain dignity.

If people don’t know what you’re doing, they don’t know what you are doing wrong.

“Under consideration” means we’ve lost the file. “Under active consideration” means we’re trying to find it.

Serenity Nearing Ulukhaktok Aug. 25

Ulukhaktok

Cruise liner Serenity is nearing its first port of call in the Northwest Passage just outside Nunavut.

Ulukhaktok NWT (population ~450) means “Place one finds material to make ulus.”

Ulu cutting tool made of steel with whale bone handle.

The place name comes from a time when these tools were made of sharpened slate, apparently plentiful in the area.

The ULU (OO-loo) is an extremely versatile cutting tool crafted by the Native Alaskan people over five thousand years ago. The knife was primarily used by Inuit women for skinning and cleaning fish and has played an important role in the survival of the Arctic people. Blades were originally made of polished slate and given a bone, ivory or wood handle. The handles were often inscribed with distinctive designs or markings exclusive to the maker of the knife.

Today, Inuit and people from all walks of life continue to use the versatile ULU as their primary cutting tool, despite the wide availability of other knife designs. Because the center of force is concentrated directly over the middle of the blade, it creates twice the direct downward force compared to that of conventional cutlery (where the force is behind the center of the blade). 

 

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows ice extent hovering around 5M km2 following the recent cyclone with variability mostly in BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160825google1

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are August 24, 2016 from MASIE. Click to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout has passed the ice tongue but has to go further south before proceeding longitudinally. Serenity negotiated an icy area, before passing Barrow and soon approaching Ulukhaktok.  The bigger picture below shows that the southern route through the Archipelago is open at this time, but that can change in the days to come.

20160824google2

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole has compressed the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 924k km2 in just 5 days. 472k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 139k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

In the last 2 days MASIE shows an overall recovery of 323k km2, with 216k m2 in the BCE region.  The graph below shows the indices converging.

MASIE 2016 day237

 

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For background on Polar Ocean Challenge see Laptev Wall and Nunavut Gauntlet.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

Celebrity Serenity

I was once told by a fellow cruise passenger not to call our ship a boat.  He said in the Navy they knew if you were in a boat it meant something awful had happened to your ship.

The Good Ship Northabout

 

 

 

 

 

Aug.24 Update Arctic Ice Recovery and Ships

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows more recovery of ice extent following the recent cyclone, mostly in BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160824google1

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are August 23, 2016 from MASIE. Click to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout has passed the ice tongue and can proceed to cross longitudinally. Serenity has also passed through an icy area, now above Barrow with open water ahead.  The bigger picture below shows that the southern route through the Archipelago is open at this time, but that can change in the days to come.

20160824google2

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole has compressed the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 924k km2 in just 5 days. 472k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 139k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

In the last 2 days MASIE shows an overall recovery of 323k km2, with 216k m2 in the BCE region.  The graph below shows the indices converging.

MASIE 2016 day236

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For background on Polar Ocean Challenge see Laptev Wall and Nunavut Gauntlet.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

Celebrity Serenity

I was once told by a fellow cruise passenger not to call our ship a boat.  He said in the Navy they knew if you were in a boat it meant something awful had happened to your ship.

The Good Ship Northabout

 

 

 

 

 

Update Aug.23 Arctic Ice, Cyclone and Ships

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows some recovery of ice extent, mostly in BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160823google1

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are August 22, 2016 from MASIE. Click to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout has moved close to shore due to a tongue of ice extending south, while Serenity has passed through the Bering Strait, heading towards Barrow, but with some ice ahead.  The pictured ice edges are from yesterday, but show a line of ice that could threaten the Beaufort passage.  That is especially an issue for Northabout, a small sailing boat foregoing any assistance from icebreakers.

The cyclone is winding down, but who knows what and where the ice will be.

Background

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole has compressed the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now close, with both showing an uptick yesterday.

MASIE 2016 day235

 

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

Celebrity Serenity

I was once told by a fellow cruise passenger not to call our ship a boat.  He said in the Navy they knew if you were in a boat it meant something awful had happened to your ship.

The Good Ship Northabout

 

 

 

 

 

Power (and $) to the People

Donald Trump was half right when speaking recently in Montana, saying that people should have the say whether to frack or not in their backyard.

“I’m in favor of fracking, but I think that voters should have a big say in it. I mean, there’s some areas, maybe, that don’t want to have fracking, and I think if the voters are voting for it that’s up to them.”

UK Prime Minister has got it all right when she announced that the wealth will be shared with residents receiving checks directly if they choose to go with the extraction. Green and anti-fossil fuel activists are scrambling to denounce her move as “bribery” while ignoring their own undemocratic posture.  They worry about losing their power to stop progress when the discourse changes from “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) to “Please In My Back Yard” (PIMBY).

A £1 billion shale wealth fund unveiled by former chancellor George Osborne in November will set aside up to 10 per cent of the tax proceeds from fracking to benefit the communities hosting wells.

But now the Prime Minister is amending the scheme so the money can go direct to residents rather than being given to councils or community trusts to spend, as Mr Osborne planned.

It is expected that the new fund could deliver as much as £10 million to each community where wells are sited.

Speaking ahead of the launch of a consultation on the fund, Mrs May said she wanted to make sure that individuals benefit personally from economic decisions.

She indicated that the model could be applied to other Government programmes, such as the Community Infrastructure Levy charge on property development in England and Wales.

“The Government I lead will always be driven by the interests of the many – ordinary families for whom life is harder than many people in politics realise,” said Mrs May. “As I said on my first night as Prime Minister, when we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful but of you. This announcement is an example of putting those principles into action.”
Source: Fracking payments: Households in line for cash under Government plans Shropshire Star

Summary

Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan don’t get enough credit for leading the free world to out-prosper the socialist block, thereby leading to the iron curtain collapsing, and eventually to economic reforms even in places like China and Cuba.

Today we are facing a growing tyranny of unelected bureaucrats at the EU and the UN whose power and resources are committed to a statist, left-wing agenda, using climate hysteria as justification.

Theresa May looks to be up for the fight. But will the next US President be a willing partner against entrenched special interests, activists and rent-seekers, or will it be someone beholden to them and to the status quo?

 

Update Aug.22: Arctic Ice, Cyclone and Ships

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows further compression and also shifting locations of sea ice in the BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160822google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are for August 21, 2016 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout is contending with a tongue of ice extending south toward the shoreline, while Serenity in on her way through the Bering Strait.  The pictured ice edges are from yesterday, but show a line of ice that could threaten the Beaufort passage.  That is especially an issue for Northabout, a small sailing boat foregoing any assistance from icebreakers.

The cyclone is expected to weaken later this week, but who knows what and where the ice will be.

Background from August 21

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole is starting to compress the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just the last 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now a match.

MASIE 2016 day233

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

 

 

 

Adapting Works! Mitigating Fails.

adapt2

Two schools of thought regarding future climates:
Adaptation: As changes occur, adapt our methods and practices to survive and prosper in new conditions.
Mitigation: Cut down on use of fossil fuels to mitigate or prevent future global warming.

The Paris Agreement and various cap-and-trade schemes intend to Mitigate future warming. Lots of gloom and doom is projected (forecast) by activists claiming mitigation is the only way. But the facts of our experience say otherwise.

What has been human experience with Adapting to climate change?

Feeding ourselves is the most fundamental social need, so we should look at the history of Agriculture and climate change. Here is a data-rich study:
Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009, by Alan L. Olmstead and Paul W. Rhodes Accessed at PNAS (here).

Numerous researchers have speculated about how farmers might change cultivars, cropping patterns, and farming methods to mitigate some of the costs of abrupt climatic changes (8). Researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) anticipate that North American wheat farmers may extend the margin of wheat production roughly 1,000 km north into northern Canada and Alaska, whereas heat and drought will make cultivation untenable in many areas of the southern Great Plains (9). To provide perspective on these and other predictions, this paper asks how farmers responded to past climatic challenges.

The spread of wheat cultivation across North America required that farmers repeatedly adapt to unfamiliar and hostile climatic conditions. The variations in climatic conditions that settlers encountered rivaled the magnitude of the predicted changes at given locations over the next century. We quantify the extent of the geographic variations and decipher how wheat growers learned to produce in new environments. Because of the paucity of Mexican data before 1929, most of our analysis of “North America” refers to Canada and the United States. Inclusion of Mexico in the later part of the 20th century highlights the role of the Green Revolution in pushing production into hotter and drier zones. (my bold)

Because of climate change, some areas presumably will decrease or cease wheat production, whereas other areas, particularly in northern Canada and Alaska, are expected to enter production. Although the anticipated movement in the wheat frontier is substantial, it is unlikely to be as great as the past geographic shifts in production. The difficulties in extending the transportation infrastructure to facilitate future shifts also appear less imposing than those overcome to open the Plains and Prairies. The challenging problems deal with adapting growing practices and creating improved cultivars. (my bold)

wheatline2

Shift in the North American spring–winter wheat frontier, 1869–1929.

The last two columns of the table, which show the differences between the Columbus baseline and the other four locations, illustrate the wide array of climatic conditions to which wheat has been adapted in North America during the past 170 y. Even with the predicted annual mean temperature by 2100, farmers near Edmonton, AB, and Dickerson, ND, will confront substantially colder conditions than eastern wheat growers faced circa 1839. Even with the anticipated increase in precipitation, the northern farmers will have to make do with about half the precipitation that the earlier generation of eastern farmers received. The predicted changes in Dodge City, KS, and Ciudad Obregón, Sonora, Mexico, suggest both hotter and drier conditions than were common at the center of North American production in 1839 (again, a climate akin to that in Columbus, OH, in the baseline period). Note, however, that the difference in temperature between Columbus and Ciudad Obregón was roughly six times the increase predicted in the latter city by 2100. Wheat production is sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in weather conditions, which probably will become more variable in the future and which are not captured by annual mean data (29). Nevertheless, the historical record of adapting wheat cultivation to areas with widely varying climates is impressive. (my bold)

For the most part, the settlement process required adapting cultivation to colder and more arid regions, not to hotter climates as predicted in the future. Farming with less water is more of a problem if the temperature also is hotter. However, biological innovations also were crucial to the expansion of production in hot-arid areas such as Texas, Oklahoma, central California, and northern Mexico. The currently predicted changes during the next century will, in a sense, reverse the predominant historical path of the past two centuries by creating a warmer and wetter environment in the Plains and Prairies that will partially approach the conditions that existed in the Middle Atlantic region when it constituted the North American wheat belt. (my bold)

The historical record offers insight into the capability of agriculture to adapt to climatic challenges. Using a new county-level dataset on wheat production and climate norms, we show that during the 19th and 20th centuries North American grain farmers pushed wheat production into environments once considered too arid, too variable, and too harsh to cultivate. As summary measures, the median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 °C lower. This shift, which occurred mostly before 1929, required new biological technologies. The Green Revolution associated with the pioneering work of Norman Borlaug represented an important advance in this longer process of biological innovation. However, well before the Green Revolution, generations of North American farmers overcame significant climatic challenges. (my bold)

How successful has mitigation been?

A recent report of California’s cap-and-trade concluded:

The problem is that the permits are selling at a slower and slower rate. The surplus of allowances is becoming so large in systems run by Europe, California and Quebec — which together account for more than 90 percent of global trading — that by 2022 it could cover the emissions spewing from every car on Earth for a full year, according to estimates by the London environmental group Sandbag Climate Campaign CIC and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

In California’s market, all 23 million allowances sold in an auction in 2014. In May 2016, 7.3 million permits found buyers, only 11 percent of what was put up for sale.

ReGGI, the carbon market joined by Northeastern US states is also ineffective but has the potential to threaten affordable electricity there. See my post: Cap and Trade Hype

Even more telling is the recent revolt by Democrat politicians against the way California distributes proceeds from auctions of carbon credits. From the LA Times: A big question complicating the climate debate: Where’s the money for poor people?

Unless more money gets directed to poor communities, lawmakers whose votes may be needed to continue the climate change efforts say they’re wary. Assemblyman Jim Cooper (D-Elk Grove), a leader in the business-aligned bloc of his party, said he hasn’t made up his mind, in part, because he’s outraged that people living in a handful of wealthy Bay Area and West Los Angeles communities have received by far the largest shares of state rebates to purchase electric cars.

“It’s welfare for the rich,” Cooper said. “It’s dead wrong in my book. It should be wrong in anybody’s book.”

Inadvertently, they are scraping the lipstick off the Mitigation Pig. They know (but don’t say out loud) this scheme does little to lower fossil fuels, and has even less impact on future climates. But it does create a pot of money, and they want the poor to have their share. If you are going to redistribute wealth, at least transfer it from the rich to the poor, as Robin Hood did. Mitigation is failing in every imaginable way.

Conclusion

Farmers have successfully grown and harvested crops in places formerly deemed too cold or too arid, and most of the new fields were in the North. Remarkably, today’s average climate where wheat is produced is both drier and colder:
“The median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 °C lower.”

Agriculture has demonstrated our massive capacity to adapt to changing conditions, whether it becomes warmer or cooler, wetter or drier.

The rational climate change policy has been proven successful: Don’t Fight It, Adapt.

Footnote:

Bumper crops expected
Grain companies predict near-record western harvest
Source: The Western Producer

The 2016 harvest is shaping up to be a whopper, according to Western Canada’s largest elevator companies.

Arctic Cyclone Clears the Ice

 

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole is starting to compress the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just the last 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now a match.

MASIE 2016 day233

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

 

 

 

On the Hubris of Climatism

Canadian Michael Hart speaks out on climatism in his new book, Hubris: The Troubling Science, Economics, and Politics of Climate Change (link to interview with Hart at Tallbloke’s Talkshop)

The wide-ranging interview contains many insights, including this one that IMO gets at a deep, underlying motive:

Alarm over a changing climate leading to malign results is in many ways the product of the hunger for stability and direction in a post-Christian world. Humans have a deep, innate need for a transcendent authority. Having rejected the precepts of Christianity, people in the advanced economies of the West are turning to other forms of authority. Putting aside those who cynically exploit the issue for their own gain – from scientists and politicians to UN leaders and green businesses – most activists are deeply committed to a secular, statist, anti-human, earth-centric set of beliefs which drives their claims of a planet in imminent danger from human activity.

To them, a planet with fewer people is the ultimate goal, achievable only through centralized direction and control. As philosopher of science Jeffrey Foss points out, “Environmental science conceives and expresses humankind’s relationship to nature in a manner that is – as a matter of observable fact – religious.” It “prophesies an environmental apocalypse. It tells us that the reason we confront apocalypse is our own environmental sinfulness. Our sin is one of impurity. We have fouled a pure, ‘pristine’ nature with our dirty household and industrial wastes. The apocalypse will take the form of an environmental backlash, a payback for our sins. … environmental scientists tell people what they must do to be blameless before nature.”

Hart says that unfortunately society has gone a long way down the wrong road, but the outcome can be changed.

I remain cautiously optimistic. Popular support for climate change action peaked a few years ago. In Europe, which has gone furthest in implementing climate change policies, politicians are beginning to look for ways to moderate earlier initiatives. In North America, rhetoric has far outstripped actions while the Obama administration has relied on stealth to implement its climate change agenda. At the same time, climate change has added to the momentum of the broader secularization of society and the pursuit of anti-human policies and programs. We are, sadly, farther down that road than we have ever been before.

Again, it will take a determined effort by people of faith and conscience to convince our political leaders that they have been gulled by a political movement exploiting fear of climate change to push a utopian, humanist agenda that most people would find abhorrent. As it now stands, politicians are throwing money that they do not have at a problem that does not exist in order to finance solutions that make no difference. The time has come to call a halt to this nonsense and focus on real issues that pose real dangers. In a world beset by war, terrorism, and continuing third-world poverty, there are far more important things on which political leaders need to focus.

Read the first chapter here: http://compleatdesktops.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Hart-Hubris-ch.-1.pdf

From the Preface:

The world will be a better place

  • when governments agree to tame this monster and refocus their energies on issues within their competence;
  • when religious leaders and other elites accept that they have fallen prey to a movement whose motives are much darker and more damaging than they realize;
  • and when the media adopt a more balanced approach and provide the public with the critical assessment that is often missing from their reporting.

It is time for all three to accept that the UN is pursuing a path that can only result in a less prosperous and more divided world.